卡车行业会全电动化吗?
“Maybe,” says Ron Batey, director of pricing and economics for refined fuels at CHS. “现在, the industry is focused on battery electrics and there’s much more research and innovation needed before that’s an affordable fit for the masses.”
You can find electric fleets on the road today — PepsiCo was the first to deploy the Tesla semitractor and Amazon Rivian delivery vans are making deliveries in more than 500 cities — and you can expect to see more (especially with a new California mandate requiring that truck sales go all electric by 2035). But Batey notes most large-scale successes have come with light-duty applications.
“There will be some scenarios where battery-powered electric vehicles (EVs) will work out,他预言道。, “but today Tesla trucks appear to be primarily hauling bags of chips for Frito-Lay. 看到同样的技术适用于普通的中型或重型车队, 你有一些很大的障碍需要克服.”
重障碍
Batey notes there’s a key conflict at the center of today’s battery technology. “Current EV batteries are too large and weigh too much to be viable at the medium- and heavy-duty scale, but you can’t drop weight without losing the energy that provides fleets with the driving range they need. 这是一个进退两难的局面.”
Battery weight also poses a risk when it comes to road maintenance, Batey continues.
“电动汽车比传统内燃机更重. 开一辆车牌号为1的车去办事是一回事,000-pound compact EV battery and another thing entirely to haul potentially a 10,000磅重的重型电池. Heavy-duty EVs can cause more damage and raise a serious question on how we’ll maintain our roads if EV trucks go mainstream.”
充电时间
EV charge times vary widely (from minutes to days) depending on vehicle size, 电池类型, 充电设备和可用功率输出. In all cases, the larger the vehicle, the more time and electricity needed to fully charge.
“We’re seeing EV passenger cars charge in 40 minutes with high-power superchargers,Batey说。. “充电时间s for light-duty vehicles may be more feasible for fleet operators, but charging for the average heavy-duty application could take three hours or more. It’s a trade-off; faster battery charging means less battery longevity. A significant breakthrough in battery technology will be needed to help the average fleet owner avoid excessive charging times.”
基础设施问题
Fleet operators keeping their vehicles close to home could have an advantage, but heavy-duty fleets running long hauls aren’t likely to see sufficient charging infrastructure for years.
“We don’t have enough widespread charging infrastructure in place to fully support passenger vehicles yet,Batey补充道. “To scale charging for the kind of range and power a heavy-duty fleet needs will be a slow, 巨大的, 持续提升.
“电动电池肯定会在汽车领域发挥作用, 但我们需要科学来推动技术, 价格和物流朝着正确的方向发展. 成本效益还没有达到.”
他说，除了电池之外，另一种选择对车队来说更有希望. 没有沉重的锂离子电池, the hydrogen fuel cell is an EV technology that could eliminate carbon emissions in heavy-duty applications while bypassing weight and charging challenges.
Advancements are still needed in the technology used to compress and liquify hydrogen and to build out the infrastructure needed for mass adoption, but “this alternative would be a much stronger fit for heavy-duty fleets where every pound matters,Batey说。. “这项技术可能会改变‘电动汽车会赢吗’的争论?到“什么样的电动汽车会赢??’”
绿色交通推动
While heavy-duty and passenger vehicles face different opportunities and challenges on the path to a low-carbon future, consumer trends could hold more sway over fleets than professional operators may realize.
“Millennial and Gen Z consumers could be the strongest guiding force impacting the future of fleets,加里·塔克说。, 环境健康和安全主管, CHS运输及物流.
“Recent studies show younger consumers aren’t just eager to invest in technology that’s marketed as ecofriendly, 喜欢电动车. They’re also more likely to put their purchasing power toward suppliers that are using greener technology. In some cases, shippers are seeing consumers dictate use of greener transportation practices.”
因为年轻的消费者需要更环保的个人汽车技术, Tucker says heavy-duty fleets are likely to experience a “trickle-up” effect.
“路上的电动汽车越多，对新技术的需求就越大, the more momentum there is behind that tech and the faster that tech will advance,塔克说。. “The more trial and error and innovation that takes place in the passenger and light-duty space, 更多的重型车队可以从中受益和学习. It’s much easier to engineer an electric compact car than an electric Class 8 tractor-trailer.”
“Demand that drives advancement in the passenger vehicle space is where we can learn how to charge faster and build a more efficient battery,Batey补充道。. “We’re likely to see a 15-year lag between mass adoption in passenger vehicles and mass adoption in heavy-duty trucks, but innovation in light applications has the power to fund the breakthroughs needed to transform trucking technology.”
