Propane goes global

丙烷的买家对市场的起起落落并不陌生. 不过，尽管季节性波动长期以来一直是推动购买决定的因素, propane supply is no longer seasonally dependent.  

他说:“供应可能会放松，我们将再次看到我们习惯的季节性价格变化,” says Ben Lyden, director of propane commodity risk for CHS. “But we’re not emerging from the COVID-19 pandemic to business as usual. The market has changed.” 

At 2.4 million barrels per day, 美国国内丙烷产量已从2020年中期的低点反弹至接近历史高位. But U.S. inventory is at a five-year low. Why? More propane than ever is being exported to customers in other countries. 

“The U.S. is producing enough propane,” says Lyden. “产量正在增长，但超过50%的丙烷被运往海外. Even though CHS does not export propane overseas, 全球客户不断增长的需求正在造成供应紧张，并为行业中的每个人塑造了一个新常态.”

Driving Forces 

Two key factors have accelerated how much propane is leaving the U.S.   

First, recent investments in U.S. propane infrastructure, including new pipelines and export terminals, have added capacity to move more product. “Local product isn’t staying local. 我们今天能够运输这么多丙烷的能力在四年前是不存在的,” says Lyden. 

从北达科他州的Bakken油气田到堪萨斯州的Conway地下储存设施，再到德克萨斯州的Mont belview出口设施的额外管道，使更多的丙烷更容易运往墨西哥湾沿岸并进入出口市场.  

Current U.S. 基础设施有能力出口高达美国国内丙烷产量的75%——大约为1%.8 million barrels a day. In 2021, exports averaged 52% of the nation’s production. 

“The U.S. produces 2.4 million barrels of propane per day,” says Lyden. “If exports get closer to 2 million barrels, 这给需要丙烷为生产提供燃料和为房屋供暖的国内买家留下的空间并不多. There’s not much of a cushion for a demand surge of any kind.”  

其次，塑料使用量的增加引发了丙烷需求的指数级增长. At the start of the pandemic, as online shopping skyrocketed, the need for plastic packaging grew as well. As a result, 石化生产商的需求飙升，他们使用丙烷等天然气产品中的树脂来制造塑料包装. And there’s still more to come, says Lyden, 因为预计未来两年将有更多的中国石化工厂投产.  

“我们看到，国际上对丙烷的需求不断增加，同时也有能力向海外输送更多的丙烷,” says Lyden. “It’s a perfect storm.”  

Propane Export Destinations, 2021 

Navigating the New Normal of Propane Prices 

This change means U.S. 农民们正与国际市场直接竞争他们所需的丙烷.  

“If a major demand event were to happen today halfway across the world, U.S. 农民将从明天的丙烷价格和供应情况中感受到这一点，”Lyden说. “The same goes for day-to-day market dynamics. While farmers are working to secure supply in advance of peak seasonal demand, 全球市场每时每刻都在买进，并在此过程中影响着价格和供应.” 

With domestic propane customers more vulnerable to external market factors, Lyden advises a reset in expectations. 

“We are used to seeing prices for propane drop in the summers, 季节性消费者习惯于在最后一刻获得供应，以度过最紧张的时刻. But if we don’t see an even larger increase in production, 在高需求时期，丙烷供应商将在寻找实物供应方面遇到问题,” he says. 

最近的暖冬天气可能给季节性消费者带来了一种虚假的安全感.  

“We saw a relatively mild winter this year, so American inventory was higher than expected,” says Lyden. “由于更典型的寒冷天气需求，我们的供应可能会达到历史最低水平. 供应紧张形成了我们的新常态，这可能意味着我们离实物产品短缺只有一步之遥.” 

Plan for the Unpredictable  

然而，目前还无法预测驱动丙烷市场的复杂因素的全部影响, Lyden建议与丙烷专家合作，提前计划并制定存储和合同选项，以防止供应波动. 

使用固定价格合约可以帮助澳门皇冠赌场平台风险，因为它不会让客户在供应紧张的时候面临市场价格飙升的风险, he says. But additional storage is also a critical asset.  

“在库存极度紧张、供应难以找到的时期，拥有更多的农场存储是降低风险的最佳方法之一,” Lyden says. “Additional storage can also help lock in low prices at optimal times to buy.”  

Steve Brazee, who grows corn and soybeans with his brother and son on his family’s 1,600-acre farm in Neenah, Wis., opted to increase propane storage when he upgraded his grain-drying system. 他知道手头有更多的丙烷会带来多重投资回报.  

“During the drying season, we were getting propane deliveries every day before upgrading our storage,” Brazee says. “现在我不用停下手头的工作去检查丙烷罐了. 我知道我有更多的储物空间，我不会再等下一批货了. I’ve cut propane deliveries in half.” 

增加的农场存储也为Brazee开辟了新的成本节约机会. 由于交货时间更灵活，他可以在丙烷价格下降时把汽油加满. He works with Lisa Effert, 他是位于brilion的Country Visions合作社的认证皇冠hga010安卓二维码专家, Wis., to secure lower pricing.  

“丽莎能成为我们的合作伙伴，帮助我们获得最大的回报，真是太棒了，”布拉泽说. “我们可以充分利用我们的存储，避免当今市场的一些波动. 这对我来说减少了一个压力源，让我有时间去处理农场的其他工作.”  

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